Manufacturing data, online retail sales, December trading begins: 3 things to watch for Monday

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Here are the most important things to know about Monday before you hit the door.

1. U.S. manufacturing rebounds?

Manufacturing, the most vulnerable sector in the U.S.-China trade war, could show signs of a recovery.

The manufacturing purchasing managers index from the Institute for Supply Management for November comes out on Monday. The gauge showed the sector contracted for a third straight month in October with a reading of 48.3. A number below 50 represents a contraction in the industry.

The sector showed its first contraction in a few years in August, ending a 35-month expansion period where the PMI averaged 56.5, according to ISM. The manufacturing gauge had its lowest reading since June 2009 in September as exports dived amid the escalated trade war.

China also has its own monthly manufacturing numbers coming out on Monday.

2. First trading day of December

Monday is the first day of trading in the last month of 2019. Will the market finish the year strong?

History seems to be on the market’s side, as December has been the best month for the S&P 500 since 1950, up 1.6%, according to Stock Trader’s Almanac. Last year was an outlier, as stocks suffered their worst December since the Great Depression.

The S&P 500 just scored its best month since June in November, up more than 3.5%. The rising optimism about a U.S.-China trade deal and receding recession fears have pushed stocks to record highs in recent weeks. While December could be a good month for the stock market, the outcome of trade discussions between the U.S. and China could make or break the rally.

3. Cyber Monday

Shoppers spent a record amount online on Thanksgiving Day, and Black Friday online sales was already up 19% by mid-morning. How big is Cyber Monday going to be?

This is the first year Thanksgiving spending has surpassed $4 billion, boosted by a 244% increase in sales from e-commerce, according to data released by Adobe.

As dozens of retailers slashed their prices, more than 85% of Americans are expected to make a purchase on Black Friday and Cyber Monday. Cyber Monday sales are forecast to grow by nearly 20% to $9.4 billion, according to Adobe.

Major events (All times ET):

9:45 a.m. IHS Markit U.S. Manufacturing PMI

10:00 a.m. ISM U.S. Manufacturing PMI

10:00 a.m. Construction Spending

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