Red States, Blue States, Social Capital, And The ‘Best Places To Retire’ List

It’s election day. Last night, Trump supporters gathered at rallies in Kenosha and Grand Rapids. In my own hometown, Biden supporters gathered near the commuter train station to wave their signs at passing traffic. They’re enthusiastic, that’s for sure. But will their enthusiasm translate into participation in community organizations that require more than waving signs or listening to speakers?

That’s what the concept of social capital seeks to address.

Social capital, it turns out, was the subject of a 2018 report spearheaded by Sen. Mike Lee through the Social Capital Project of the Senate Joint Economic Committee. In the same manner as we put financial capital to work in investments, so, too, social capital is defined as “the aspects of our relationships that produce benefits for us.” On an individual basis, we build our social capital by becoming involved in community organizations, and then reap the benefits when those community members with whom we have built relationships, come to our aid, whether through the traditional “bringing casseroles to a family with a new baby” or in other ways. More collectively, we know intuitively that towns and cities with greater social capital enhance the well-being of their residents.

The 2018 Social Capital Index uses a variety of metrics, some at the state level, some at the county level, and some at both levels, to measure social capital at the state and the local level.

Here’s a map of the state-level results, with paler colors indicating more social capital:

And here’s the results by county:

(Note that grey areas indicate counties where the full data set was not available.)

What’s more, there are four subindices: the Family Unity subindex measures the degree to which children live in two-parent homes; the Community Health subindex measures the degree to people are involved in their communities through church, nonprofits, other organizations or informally; the Institutional Health subindex measures confidence in institutions, census response rates and voter turnout; and the Collective Efficacy subindex measures crime rates. Each of these produces somewhat different patterns regionally; the Great Plains states score well in all subindices but the southeast ranks better in Institutional Health and worse in Community Health and Family Unit; while the Southwest and California rank worst in Institutional Health and better in Community Health and Family Unity. (You can explore these maps and data at the report website.)

And, for as much as readers will no doubt be hearing a great deal about “red states” and “blue states” during the course of the coming election reporting, there is no partisan divide in these rankings. Instead, as Washington Post columnist Megan McArdle observed at the time,

“The maps provided by the Joint Economic Committee suggest that migration may indeed have persistent effects on social trust — that historical events can build or deplete our social capital even centuries later. When you get down to the county level, it looks as if the stronger areas on the map are dominated by settlement from just three of America’s many immigrant waves: Puritans in the 17th century and Scandinavians and Germans in the 19th. The weaker spots, on the other hand, seem to trace the twin realms of Spanish colonialism and King Cotton.”

What does this have to do with retirement?

Visitors at the main Forbes “Retirement” page at this writing will notice that one of the featured articles has the intriguing headline, “Why Fargo, North Dakota Might Be A Better Retirement Destination Than Florida’s Sunshine.” And, indeed, the author explains that the city of Fargo has, despite its cold temperatures, been on the Forbes’ Best Places to Retire list for 10 years in a row, because towns are selected for more than warm weather; the rankings look at cost of living, taxation, and quality of life data such as crime rates, recreational opportunities, and the like.

So how do these Best Places rate in terms of social capital?

To give an understanding of these metrics in an easily-digestible format, I converted the metrics into percentile rankings, where, for example, a 99th percentile ranking means the city (or, strictly speaking, county) scores better on the index than 99% of all counties. As the maps above lead one to expect, the highest ranking cities are in the north rather than the south, and yes, Fargo ranks 5th of these “best places” in terms of social capital.

But does a high level of social capital really matter, or is it just another justification for making yet another ranking?

The recent book Alienated America by Tim Carney concluded that one of the reasons why many people are struggling is that community institutions are declining, generally speaking. And a 2019 report found that among near-retirees (ages 61 – 63), sources of potential social support have been declining over the past several decades: fewer people report having a good friend in the neighborhood, a child living within 10 miles, or a relative in the neighborhood, among other sources of social support.

And — though it’s difficult to say where there are causal factors vs. mere correlation, high levels of social capital are strongly (0.68) correlated with lower levels of people in the community with poor or fair health, and moderately (0.58) correlated with lower levels of obesity. Likewise, there is a moderate correlation between higher levels of social capital and higher life expectancy (0.49) and lower rates of premature death (0.52) — all according to the County Health Rankings data.

Is it possible for the federal government, nonprofits, and concerned citizens to improve social capital in those regions in which it’s weak? The Social Capital Project website includes further reports on policy ideas. (Of course, given that the maps are shows as rankings, there will always be some states which rank lower than others, but this does nonetheless draw our attention to areas of concern.)

And, again with respect to the “best places” list, is it possible to build social capital even in areas where, community-wide, social capital is weak, or for newcomers, generally speaking to rebuild their social capital upon settling into a new community? It is, if nothing else, a question that merits asking upon looking at a move.

As always, you’re invited to comment at JaneTheActuary.com!